[ranatalus]

Originally Posted by hello271

Except the target audience of casuals do NOT buy each mix. Find people who have every mix since DDRMAX. That person is more likely to be a hardcore DDR player than a casual. How many casuals do you know that own every mix? I don't. They usually buy one or two games and that's it.

You are absolutely right, any random person you find that has more than say, 3 home versions is probably a more hardcore player. How many "hardcore" players are there out there that will actually buy every version in the US? Maybe 1000? Maybe 10,000 at the absolute highest? Given your numbers here:

DDRMAX2: 1.09m
Extreme2: 0.92m
SuperNova: 0.83m
SuperNova2: 0.62m
DDR X: 0.21m (so far)

even if that absurdly high estimate 10,000 hardcore fans buy every version, that is practically NONE of the sales.

The numbers are clearly dropping, and dropping fast. And is it any surprise?

DDR X has been out what, 2 or 3 months? SN2 has been out over a year? Of course it's going to be outselling it by a ton.

Because CONTENT MATTERS. A better quality game = more sales. Otherwise, why not just have 40 songs, and pump out 5 or 6 versions?

Konami has probably done lots of research into what levels of content test well in audiences--I doubt they casually sit around and roll a bunch of dice to determine how many songs/which songs go into each version.

By only releasing one version every two years, they would save a lot of money by developing only one game, and also licensing fewer songs, fewer charts, etc. than by having two versions.

Didn't you say that they should simply be combining all the content from the two releases into that one, larger, "higher quality" release? What about keeping true to the AC versions? I think it would look rather lazy for Konami to have just pushed everything from SN onto DDR X and never release an SN2 home version.

In other words, something like a really good CS with 110 songs instead of two lackluster CS with 70-80 songs each.

An assumption you seem to be presenting here is that 1 game with more content is invariably going to be better than 2 games each with approximately 70% of the content of the larger game. Why? Is one 10-pound pile of shit better than two 7 pound piles? No. They're all piles of shit (not that I'm calling every DDR home version a pile of shit)

Yeah, having the general public accept that the game was over and done with, and having many move on to ITG, actually hurt SuperNova.

Actually, I don't think it hurt; I think it helped. DDR had passed the point of insane popularity, with arcades gladly dropping $1000+ for upgrade kits even when they had just paid that much 6 months earlier because they were making their money back (and quickly). Now, with DDR's fad status dying out and with arcades hurting more than ever, places are less willing to shell out more money for games. It's not just DDR, either. Wander around your local arcade and look at the dates on the headers of games. Look at how few are from 2006 forward, and compare to how many are before that. It's expensive to upgrade games, and games that continue to make some money likely won't get upgraded because they are still making a decent amount.

But a longer gap = higher demand (to a certain extent). This is still true.

Not really. If you noticed, when SN2 was first announced, there was a lot of hype and excitement for it. After the location test in Chicago in July 07, it increased the expectations even more. And then......nothing. No updates, no information, nothing. Expectations and desire dwindled. The game came out in Japan later that year. Interest spiked a little, and then died back off again. By the time it came out (Jan/Feb 08) no one really cared. It's been a full year now and very few places have upgraded. You were correct in assuming there were very few SN2s in California (out of their 400+ machines, only 12 are SN2--there are almost as many ITG1 machines!), although possibly for the wrong reasons. Again, the DDR fever has come down and machines aren't making $500+ a week anymore.

I should have added "from my experience." But okay, so what? A fourth of the Extreme machines have been upgraded. Whatever. It's still a huge number compared to the number of SuperNova 2 machines. How many of those are in CA? 10 maybe? 15? The simple fact is most arcade owners cannot afford to upgrade every year (or don't care to).

Ok? Not sure what you're getting at here since we're in agreement. Your original point was that people don't WANT to upgrade, not that they can't afford to.

A SuperNova upgrade kit also ran over $2000 if I remember right, so it's not that different. Upgrade kits always get more expensive with every version.

An SN upgrade cost around $2000, correct. It looks quite different to an arcade owner, however. They don't see things the same as the players.

Player: Hey, the new version of DDR is out!
Owner: Didn't I just upgrade this a year and a half ago?
Player: Yeah, but the new version adds new songs and (technical stuff that arcade owners/operators do not care about in the slightest)
Owner: ...I see. How much is it?
Player: $2500.
Owner: Is the machine working as is?
Player: Yeah.
Owner: Are you going to stop playing it if I don't upgrade?
Player: No....

Competition is the only incentive arcade operators have to upgrade. As long as people continue to play on the machine, they don't HAVE to upgrade/fix/do anything. If the machine stops making money, then they'll

Except you can go to any electronics store and pick up DDR X, DDR SuperNova 2, or DDR SuperNova. Some stores still have DDRMAX, MAX2, Extreme, and Extreme 2. They're also easy to find online. And that's just for people with one system.

Yeah, generally they are used copies which means that someone traded them in so they could either:

1) Buy some other game/system (most likely)
2) Buy another, newer version of DDR

Yeah, if the thing is actually new. Having the same game come out year after year is not exactly enticing to teenagers.

Sales seem to say otherwise. This is the same reason they license those 5-15 popular songs that most of the hardcore community can't stand. People will seriously buy DDR just to play 2 or 3 songs they know a handful of times.

By having every iteration of DDR actually be different, a step forward, with new features

Like what? Shock arrows? Those sure are an improvement and everyone seems to love them

Oh wait, practically no one (ITG players included) seems to like shock arrows in DDR

and a solid list of new songs

Opinion. I have found that DDR X's songlist did not interest me much at first but now that I am giving it a second chance I am liking quite a few of the songs.

Also, if DDR keeps pumping out games really fast, in a few years it will likely run out of steam.

Well, yeah, eventually the series will stop. It'll stop being profitable and then Konami will give up on it. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

First of all, there's no arbitrary reason that Konami can only put a lot of effort into a DDR game if it's the last game (or supposedly the last game). For example, a lot more effort is clearly put into every new IIDX game than every DDR game.

This one is pretty simple--Konami's primary target for IIDX and Pop'n is (SURPRISE) Japan. Japan's arcade/console gaming scene is quite different from ours. Also, these games are much, much, MUCH more popular in Japan than DDR is which is why Extreme was supposed to be the last DDR--it ceased to be worth the effort. It's also why the newer games are much different because they are geared at the American audiences, not the Japanese.

Extreme didn't take years and years to make. It came out in the arcades 9 months after Max2 did.

So then why are you telling Konami to slow down?

But even if were to accept your assertion, then I should at least be able to expect Konami to pump out a game on the same level of Max2, or SuperNova.

I don't see SN as being on-par with Max2. SuperNOVA shipped with a software bug that made the game nearly unplayable, and the "fix" that was sent to American arcades was poorly distributed with many arcades not receiving the disc and with some that DID not understanding why they got it, so they threw it in a back room somewhere and never used it.

But DDR X is not even close to those two games. And if Konami's response is "well DDR is getting less popular," then maybe that's Konami's fault. After all, Konami puts a lot more effort into each IIDX and Pop'n version, and I don't hear those games dying out.

Yeah, and no one around you in America hears anything about Pop'n or IIDX at all because, again, the Japanese gaming scene is very different. Also, those games kind of don't exist here and would probably not succeed if they did.

Also, as I mentioned before, DDR X is Konami's attempt to target a game more towards American arcades/the american audience.

No, I meant "DDX isn't half the mix Extreme was, and maybe not even half the mix SuperNova was." Although I might be stretching it with SuperNova.

Ok, that makes more sense.

And I don't see how the arcade version can be much better than DDR X US if DDR X US has most of the new songs in the arcade version.

The US version of DDR did not contain several new songs (A Geisha's Dream, Koko Soko, poririzumu, Suki Melo, ubertreffen, blue rain), some new modifiers (speed mods, etc), and other interface changes. It also did not include the feature to export edits to a USB drive, which the JP version DOES include.